September 6th, 2014

NKVD Officer

Truce at 18:00

Interfax reports (in Russian) that an armistice was signed in Minsk between the Ukrainian junta on one side and the DPR and the LPR on the other side. It goes into effect today, after 18:00.
Overall, as I wrote before, it is more likely to be advantageous for the junta, which needs an urgent military respite in order to regroup and to restore the connectedness of the front line. Well, as for the talks themselves, they are a step towards "Larger Transnistria" with separating two more regions from Ukraine but simultaneously a step away from creating Large Novorossia, which remains under the control of the fascist junta in these types of scenarios.
The question of whether the leadership of Novorossia could refrain from signing this armistice is not essential: the necessary rearrangements for such a decision were made a bit earlier and all possible obstacles in the way of reaching an armistice were removed, starting with Strelkov. So this agreement, if it is indeed signed (and for now its text wasn't published yet and all references are made to insider sources) and goes into effect, primarily reflects the current foreign policy course of the Kremlin with respect to Donbass.

Nevertheless, for now the conditions of this truce are not clear. It is also not clear if it will be observed and what will be the line that separates the two entities. Considering the position of the USA, which are interested in continuing the war, there are significant grounds for supposing that even if this truce will be achieved, then it will simply be a pause before the military action is resumed.

Well, and if the media got ahead of themselves and the agreement isn't signed, then this is actually great and the army of Novorossia may continue the offensive and the rout of the remaining encirclements.

PS. Meanwhile, fighting continues in Mariupol, the reinforced assault groups of the army of Novorossia managed to enter the city and to set off fighting there, liberating a couple of blocks from the junta in the process. At this time the fighting still continues and apparently it will continue up until the evening.

Original article: (in Russian)

Note from the translator: it appears that the fighting in Mariupol has since ceased, for now it remains under the control of the Ukrainian regime.

Дежа вю

В общем-то, ситуация, конечно, явно из разряда «Где-то я это уже видел». Весной 12 года Асад добивал исламистов, и именно в этот момент ему выкрутили руки прекращением огня, после чего через три месяца он получил штурм Алеппо и Дамаска, с чем, собственно, продолжает справляться по сей день.

Перемирие, которое объявляется в ситуации, далекой от патовой, всегда и во все времена однозначно заключается в пользу проигравшей стороны. Чтобы уравнять шансы и продолжить потеху. Никакого иного толкования произошедшему нет и быть не может.

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Автор: el-murid